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  • Exiled tycoon says Turkish gov’t members to appear in int’l courts over unlawful confiscations

    Cevheri Güven

    Exiled Turkish businessman Akın İpek has said members of the Turkish government and judiciary who are behind the confiscation of his family’s assets valued at $10 billion as part of a government-led crackdown will eventually appear in international courts and account for their unlawful deeds.

    İpek’s remarks came during an exclusive interview with Turkish Minute on Thursday.

    The businessman was thrust into the spotlight again after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan publicly targeted him on Wednesday, saying that those like the “person in the UK” do not have the right to own property due to their links to the Gülen movement, accused by the Turkish government of masterminding a failed coup in July 2016. The movement strongly denies any involvement in the abortive putsch.“They don’t have such a thing as the right to own property. They owe a huge debt to the public. This person in the UK, how is he going to pay the debt he owes? He should return to this country. That is what we’re fighting for and will continue to fight for,” Erdoğan said before departing for a visit to Azerbaijan.

    Living in the UK since 2015, İpek was CEO of İpek Printing House and Koza Holding, which were seized in 2015. He was also the owner of a large media corporation that operated two TV stations, two newspapers and a radio station which were all subsequently shut down by Erdoğan’s government.

    Response to Erdoğan

    According to a report drafted by London Advocacy, the combined value of schools, universities, dormitories, foundations and associations seized over Gülen-related investigations amounts to $35 billion, while the exact amount of assets confiscated from businesspeople is unknown.

    Accused by Erdoğan of being a terrorist and denied the right to own property, Akın said the reason Erdoğan has been targeting him and his family is money.

    “After the authorities failed to find any irregularities in our companies, they came up with the idea of appointing government trustees in 2015. In order to do that, they used expert reports that later turned out to be fake. As I am outside the country, my trial cannot proceed, and they are unable to confiscate my [personal] stock,” İpek said.

    “My brother Tekin and my mother’s shares were insufficient to control the company, so they seized the shares belonging to Tekin’s wife, too. To be able to do that, they sentenced them all to prison, my mother to 20 years and my brother Tekin to 90 years. What’s the difference between that and capital punishment?”

    “This is the burden that our family has to bear. This is why I say they are committing murder for money.”

  • NBA Player Enes Kanter and 30 Prominent Panelists All Around the World Will Speak at Freedom Convention 2020: Turkey

    NEW YORK, December 8, 2020 (Newswire.com) – Advocates of Silenced Turkey (AST) will host Freedom Convention 2020 on December 9-10 to address all human rights violations in Turkey regarding civil, political, economic, social and cultural as contained in the basic human rights documents.

     

    This two-day conference takes place on United Nations Human Rights Day, which is celebrated annually across the world on Dec. 10 every year to honor the United Nations General Assembly’s adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), the first global enunciation of human rights.

    For the last 3 years, AST has been raising awareness about the human rights violations in Turkey and advocating for the rights of persecuted people. The 2016 coup attempt made an accelerating impact on Turkey’s already fraying democratic mechanisms and allowed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s administration to launch a sweeping purge. More than 150,000 public workers, including generals, admirals, judges, prosecutors, doctors, teachers, police officers and etc., have been summarily sacked by emergency decrees without due process leading to human rights violations against hundreds of thousands of people. Freedom Convention 2020 is a unique convention for human rights activists, intellectuals and policymakers focused on human rights violations in Turkey.

    In a total of five panel discussions, speakers, including NBA player Enes Kanter, NY Times bestselling author Rabia Chaudry and Former Canadian Secretary of State David Kilgour, will focus on various aspects of violations including: (1) Freedom of Speech and Expression, (2) Collapse of Rule of Law, (3) Shift from Democratization Towards Authoritarianism in Turkey with the Rise of Political Islam, (4) Power, Political Violence and Violations of Minority Rights, and finally, (5) Women’s Rights in Turkey. In pursuance of justice and peace, this forum aims to bring hundreds of human rights defenders and activists together and also to foster the dynamics to mobilize. Participants and experts will not only learn the ongoing violations and persecutions in Turkey but also be able to develop strategies and recommendations to the Turkish government and international bodies to end those grave violations through the panel discussions.

    Through Freedom Convention 2020 – “Turkey: Grave Human Rights Violations” our goal is to bring hundreds of human rights experts, activists together to address human rights challenges, the collapse of the rule of law in Turkey, create network and provoke nonviolent ideas and actions.

    This is a virtual convention. Please visit and register through http://silencedturkey.org/freedom-convention-2020

  • Turkey feared to be turning into surveillance state under Erdoğan rule

    Claims by two opposition political parties of the illegal wiretapping of their phones and the discovery of four bugs at the İstanbul headquarters of another opposition party as well as the Turkish government granting broader authority to the country’s intelligence agency have all raised concerns about the country turning into a surveillance state under the rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

    Two Turkish opposition politicians have claimed that their phones are wiretapped and that they are being surveilled. While Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu has denied the allegations, the phone monitoring authorizations granted to Turkey’s state institutions have expanded in recent years.

    Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), and Felicity Party (SP) leader Temel Karamollaoğlu recently claimed their phones were being illegally wiretapped and that they were being monitored.

    Kılıçdaroğlu’s name recently came up in connection to alleged plots to assassinate him when pro-government columnists Fuat Uğur and Fuat Bol brought up the claims in their newspapers.

    When asked about the allegations, the CHP chairman said he has confidence in his security detail. However, he also claimed his phone conversations are being monitored and that he is under surveillance.

    “I know very well that my phones are being tapped,” Kılıçdaroğlu said.

    The CHP leader’s allegation was followed by Karamollaoğlu saying that he, too, was sure he was being wiretapped.

    “I think our phones and the locations we frequent are being monitored. Yet we are not upset by this since we have nothing to hide. They can listen all they want, it is not a problem for us,” Karamollaoğlu said.

    Interior Minister Soylu spoke out against the allegations on social media. In response to the Habertürk newspaper’s Kübra Par, who raised the issue in her column, Soylu slammed the journalist.

    “Nobody can be wiretapped unless authorized. It’s a felony,” Soylu tweeted. “You have given in to the designs of the West, which tries to take advantage of the concerns of the public.”

    “Admiring the West while looking down on one’s own state…” Soylu went on to say. “I put myself out there, but what about the fabricators of this slander? Wiretapping the main opposition leader is a perversity. Alleging this is a horrible slander!”

    In a similar development on Tuesday, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) announced that four listening devices were found in the party building in İstanbul. Deputy Chairman Saruhan Oluç displayed the devices at a news conference and said the party would file a criminal complaint.

    “We have not been involved in any crime that we’re trying to hide. We don’t have criminal partnerships like you do that we’re covering up,” said Oluç in remarks aimed at the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government.

    Expansion of wiretapping authority

    The allegations raised by the opposition are arguably linked to the vast powers granted to Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MİT) in recent years. The government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan first passed legislation making it difficult to prosecute MİT employees. Under the new laws, they can only be tried with Erdoğan’s approval and in a special court set up in Ankara. The 34th Ankara High Criminal Court was established to oversee the trials of MİT staff. No intelligence operative has thus far stood trial before it.

    Until 2014 legal wiretapping in Turkey was only possible with a court decision delivered by a panel of three judges. In 2014 new legislation made it possible for a single judge to make the call. In 2016 prosecutors were authorized to directly order the police to carry out phone monitoring if they deemed a situation to be an emergency.

    Monitoring room at the presidential palace

    The surveillance allegations raised by Kılıçdaroğlu and Karamollaoğlu are linked to a new center set up in Erdoğan’s presidential complex in the capital city.

    In September Interior Minister Soylu announced that the government was about to perfect a system connecting all public security cameras across the country to the presidency.

    The opposition believes Erdoğan’s government is monitoring their every move.

    Turkey wants to purchase spyware to penetrate mobile communications

    After the enactment of legislation to facilitate wiretapping, WhatsApp became Turkey’s most popular mobile messaging app. However, several reports have said that Turkey is trying to acquire spyware that would allow it to penetrate WhatsApp communications.

    An ongoing investigation in Germany involves allegations that a software company named FinFisher has sold the Turkish government spyware to wiretap the phone conversations of opponents.

    In the investigation conducted by Munich prosecutors, the company is charged with unlawfully exporting technical surveillance software and hardware to Turkey. The spyware in question, Finspy, is believed to have been sold to Turkey in 2017 to allow the Turkish government access to the phones of participants in protests against the government’s mass detentions and purges under a post-coup state of emergency declared in the aftermath of an abortive putsch in July 2016.

    Reuters reported that through Finspy, it is possible to get hold of the contacts, photos and videos on the phones.

    The hacking of Zehra Türkmen’s phone

    The first allegation about MİT’s use of Finspy came in February 2020 when a teacher by the name of Zehra Türkmen saw her personal information and photos published on the Internet.

    What made Zehra Türkmen significant was her struggle to find her husband Gökhan Türkmen, a former public sector worker sacked by an emergency decree-law who went missing in 2019 for six months. Zehra Türkmen as well as the wives of five other people who disappeared under suspicious circumstances waged an intensive public campaign for months. After six months Gökhan Türkmen turned up in police custody, showing visible signs of torture and ill-treatment. At his first court hearing months later, Türkmen said he had been abducted by MİT and interrogated under torture for four months in an unknown location.

    Zehra Türkmen’s campaign made her a target. The educational institution where she worked was repeatedly audited by inspectors and fined. She lost her job as a result of the pressure. Her phone was hacked, her personal photos were published and her social media passwords stolen.

    After the incident, two journalists critical of the government also had their phones hacked, and their social media accounts published pro-Erdoğan posts.

    Turkey is one of the biggest clients of the Pegasus spyware

    A report released in 2018 by the Citizen Lab at the University of Toronto found that Turkey was one of the biggest clients of spyware named Pegasus, developed by the Israeli-based NSO Group.

    The state clients of the company can access all the information on a phone on which they use the spyware, including passwords, contact lists, calendars, messages and calls made through messaging apps. The spyware also allows the remote use of the phones’ cameras and microphones. It can be used on both iPhones and phones with an Android operating system.

    Citizen Lab had previously revealed that the spyware was used to tap Ahmed Mansoor, an Emirati human rights activist. The phone of Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist who was murdered at the Saudi Consulate General in İstanbul, was also surveilled through Pegasus spyware.

  • More than 350 face detention in massive operations targeting Gülen movement followers

    Turkish prosecutors have issued detention warrants for more than 350 people in the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK), the Gülhane Education and Research Hospital (GATA) and the Health Ministry in three separate operations due to their alleged links to the Gülen movement.

    The Turkish government accuses the Gülen movement of masterminding a failed coup on July 15, 2016 and labels it a “terrorist organization,” although the movement strongly denies involvement in the coup attempt or any terrorist activity.

    As part of the largest operation into alleged members of the Gülen movement in the TSK, Turkish prosecutors have issued detention warrants for 304 people, most of whom are active duty military officers.

    In the early hours of Tuesday, police teams began to conduct raids across 50 provinces as part of the İzmir-based operation to detain the suspects, who are accused of communicating with Gülen movement members through pay phones to avoid detection.

    The suspects facing detention include five colonels, one lieutenant colonel, one major, 10 captains, 58 lieutenants, 221 noncommissioned officers, seven special sergeants and one civilian. While 193 of the suspects are from the Land Forces Command, 111 are with the Air Forces Command.

    As part of the operation at GATA, whose former name, Gülhane Military Medical Academy, was changed following the coup attempt, detention warrants were issued for 37 people, 31 of whom are doctors. The suspects include two professors, five associate professors, five purged colonels, one retired colonel, five purged lieutenant colonels, an active duty major, two active-duty captains and a purged lieutenant.

    As part of the third operation at the Health Ministry, detention warrants have been issued for 10 Health Ministry personnel, who have been detained. The detainees include three currently working doctors, three purged doctors, two doctors who resigned from their jobs, one retired doctor and one nurse. The detainees are accused of having a bank account at the Bank Asya, which was closed following the coup attempt due to its links to the Gülen movement; and using ByLock, a mobile phone application considered by Turkish authorities to be a secret tool of communication among Gülen movement members. Prosecutors have reportedly obtained statements from informants concerning their Gülen movement membership.

    The operations targeting healthcare personnel come at a time when the Turkish healthcare system is overwhelmed by the soaring number of coronavirus cases in the country.

    Following the coup attempt the Turkish government removed more than 130,000 civil servants from their jobs due to alleged Gülen links.

    According to a statement from Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu on Nov. 26, a total of 292,000 people have been detained while 96,000 others have been jailed due to alleged links to the Gülen movement since the failed coup. The minister said there are currently 25,655 people in Turkey’s prisons who were jailed due to links to the Gülen movement.

    Since the coup attempt, followers of the Gülen movement have been subjected to a massive crackdown, with the Turkish government and pro-government media outlets demonizing its members.

    In addition to the thousands who were jailed, scores of other Gülen movement followers had to flee Turkey to avoid the government crackdown.

  • Former military cadet severely beaten, tortured by guards in Turkey’s Silivri Prison

    Muhammet Ali Taş, one of more than 300 former military cadets who were sentenced to life in prison for “attempting to overthrow the government” and allegedly participating in an abortive putsch in Turkey in July 2016, was severely beaten by six prison guards, the Bold Medya news website reported on Monday.

    The incident was revealed on social media on Monday by Melek Çetinkaya, the mother of another former military cadet behind bars, who said Taş was brutally beaten by prison guards in Turkey’s notorious Silivri Prison, where most political prisoners are held.

    “Military cadet Muhammed Ali Taş was beaten by the guards until he passed out. Our lawyer is on his way to Silivri [Prison] right now,” Çetinkaya said in a tweet addressed to Turkey’s justice and defense ministries.

    According to the lawyer’s statements, which were also shared on social media by Çetinkaya, Taş was taken to prison guard Ramazan Kuyucu’s room after having an argument with another inmate on Dec. 4. He was severely beaten there by Kuyucu and five others while his hands were tied behind his back. The lawyer said Taş told him he was beaten until he lost consciousness.

    Kuyucu reportedly swore at the military cadet and made fun of him, asking how he liked the beating while hitting him. The lawyer also underlined that his client was stripped by the guards, kept in a filthy room for two hours and then made to walk through the corridors of the prison with head down as part of psychological torture.

    The prison authorities, who didn’t send the complaint filed by Taş after the incident to the Bakırköy Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office despite receiving it in a sealed envelope, also refused to speak to his attorney.

    The lawyer, who found out about the beating after speaking to Taş’s family members, indicated that he saw bruises and marks of beating on his client’s face when he visited him in prison on Monday.

    “Military cadets are currently serving time in prison on charges related to the coup attempt that they had no prior knowledge about. Now those cadets are allegedly being tortured behind bars. The Justice Ministry should immediately release a statement about these claims and punish the perpetrators,” Abdülkadir Karaduman, a lawmaker from the Felicity Party (SP), tweeted.

    Speaking to ARTI TV, pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) deputy Ömer Faruk Gergerlioğlu, one of Turkey’s most prominent human rights defenders, said he addressed a parliamentary question to Justice Minister Abdülhamit Gül, knowing that this human rights violation would be covered up by the ministry just like others before it.

    “A military cadet who ended up behind bars at the age of 19 and who has been there for five years now is also being tortured. The cases of torture in Turkish prisons, unfortunately, increased in 2020. The prisons are being managed arbitrarily, and thus people have the opportunity and environment to beat someone they don’t like,” the lawmaker added.

  • Germany deporting teacher facing arrest in Turkey due to Gülen links

    Cevheri Güven-turkishminute

    German authorities have taken action to deport a Turkish teacher, who applied for asylum in the country, to Turkey where he faces an arrest warrant due to his links to the Gülen movement, accused by the Turkish government of masterminding a failed coup in 2016.The movement strongly denies any involvement in the failed putsch.

    Mustafa Kaşka is one of the thousands of individuals who had to flee Turkey to avoid a massive crackdown the Turkish government launched on the Gülen movement followers in the aftermath of the failed coup. The teacher, who applied for asylum in Germany on Nov.25 but denied an asylum, was taken from a refugee camp in the German city of Giesen on Tuesday by police officers and taken to the Frankfurt Airport for deportation. The appeal process for the teacher’s denied asylum application is still under way.

    Kaşka, who had a nervous breakdown as he was being taken to the plane, saying he would be arrested if he is sent back to Turkey, was taken down from the plane stairs and taken to a police station in Darmstadt.

    The teacher was the director of a student dormitory in the western Turkish province of İzmir. The student dormitory, where he worked, was closed down due to its links to the Gülen movement following the coup attempt. Kaşkar, who began to work as a teacher at a private school in İzmir, was later fired from his job in 2018 based on an order from the İzmir Governor’s Office due to his ties to the Gülen movement.

    The teacher told Turkish Minute over a phone interview in the police station in Darmstadt that being a director at a Gülen-linked organization is for the Turkish government tantamount to being a leader in a terrorist organization as the Turkish government describes the group as a terrorist organization.

    Kaşkar said he fears to be tortured in Turkey where there are widespread claims and reports about maltreatment and torture of the inmates in prisons.

    “I know that those, who are tried on charges of terrorist organization leadership, are subjected to torture. That’s why I went into hiding in Turkey and decided to flee. I looked for a way to flee for months. I had to remain in hiding for one-and-half years. Then, I could finally make my way to Greece by crossing the Evros River on a refugee boat on Sept. 23, 2019. I came to Germany on Nov. 25, 2019 and applied for an asylum,” Kaşkar told Turkish Minute.

    Germany’s Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) denied Kaşkar’s asylum application but the teacher appealed BAMF’s decision at a Germany court and the appeal process is still pending.

    The teacher said he cannot understand why the German authorities are seeking to deport him when his appeal process is still in progress. He said BAMF’s denial of his asylum application was wrong in the first place, because he handed over all the necessary documents as well as a decision by a Turkish court showing an arrest warrant for him.

    “I am just a teacher. I did not commit any crime. I don’t want to spend my life in prison due to my political views. I am calling on rights organizations and the public to raise their voices against my deportation and I expect BAMF to examine my asylum case again,” said the teacher.

    According to a statement from Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu on Nov. 26, a total of 292,000 people have been detained while 96,000 others have been jailed due to alleged links to the Gülen movement since the failed coup. The minister said there are currently 25,655 people in Turkey’s prisons who were jailed due to links to the Gülen movement.

  • Turkey, Russia strike deal to monitor truce in Karabakh region

    Turkey and Russia have agreed to monitor a truce over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave from a joint peacekeeping center, the Turkish defense ministry said on Tuesday.

    The deal came after talks between Turkish and Russian officials as to how the two regional powers would implement a Moscow-brokered ceasefire signed in November between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

    The two countries concluded the technical details for setting up the joint center and had signed an agreement, the defense ministry said in a statement.

    The ministry tweeted that the necessary work was underway to get the center operational as soon as possible, reminding that on November 11 a memorandum of understanding had been signed via video conference by the Turkish and Russian defense ministers, Hulusi Akar and Sergey Shoigu.

    The Turkish Parliament on Nov. 17 approved a presidential motion that sought permission for the deployment of Turkish troops in Azerbaijan.

    The Turkish troops will be responsible for monitoring the ceasefire agreement that followed six weeks of intense fighting between the two countries.

    The motion, which is valid for one year, leaves it to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to determine the number of troops to be sent.

  • Turkey’s judicial council rewards judges and prosecutors for their role in gov’t-led prosecutions

    Turkey’s Council of Judges and Prosecutors (HSK) on Friday named 11 judges and prosecutors, many of whom played critical roles in government-led prosecutions, as new members of the Supreme Court of Appeals.

    The list included Selfet Giray, chief justice of the Ankara 4th High Criminal Court, which ruled the day before on the most important mass trial, known as the Akıncı case, regarding a coup attempt in 2016. The court delivered life sentences without parole to 291 defendants and life with the possibility of parole to 46 defendants. Eighty defendants were acquitted of charges and 58 received lesser sentences.

    Turkey experienced a controversial military coup attempt on the night of July 15, 2016 which, according to many, was a false flag aimed at entrenching the authoritarian rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan by rooting out dissidents and eliminating powerful actors such as the military in his desire for absolute power.

    According to the Turkish government, Akıncı Airbase was the command center for the failed coup, and Chief of General Staff Gen. Hulusi Akar was held there after allegedly being taken hostage by coup plotters. Everyone at the airbase that night was accused of taking part in the coup.

    Gen Akar himself claimed he was held hostage at an airbase outside Ankara by the coup plotters. Yet, the CCTV footage of the night showed Akar leaving the headquarters and taking a helicopter without any sign of coercion. In one scene, Akar was seen asking one of his would-be abductors to bring his cap and the soldier rushing to follow his orders.

    The courts have now concluded almost all of the 289 trials related to the coup attempt and have convicted more than 4,000 people.

    Legal professionals have criticized the use of mass trials against thousands accused of even vague involvement in the coup, including convictions handed down to army cadets and others who were ordered out onto the streets that night with little knowledge of what was going on.

    Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor Yüksel Kocaman, who ordered the detention of 82 prominent pro-Kurdish politicians last September, is also among those appointed to serve at the Supreme Court of Appeals. The detentions had come only a few days after Kocaman visited Turkish President Erdoğan at the presidential palace with his bride immediately after their wedding and received gifts there.

    Another well-known figure who was selected to serve at the Supreme Court of Appeals is İrfan Fidan, the İstanbul chief public prosecutor. Fidan had taken over what is known as the December 17 and December 25, 2013 corruption investigations, which implicated then-Prime Minister Erdoğan, his family members and his inner circle, after the prosecutors and police officers working on the case were removed from their positions.

    Fidan dropped the charges against 96 suspects including Bilal Erdoğan, son of President Erdoğan, four government ministers and Iranian-Turkish gold trader Reza Zarrab, who later admitted in a New York court to leading a sanctions busting scheme that had helped Iran evade US sanctions with the help of Turkish banks, yielding Iran an estimated $13 billion. Zarrab also admitted to bribing senior politicians and bureaucrats in the process.

  • House prices rise nationally in November, with further gains expected for 2021, says CoreLogic

    House prices have continued to rise nationally in the face of the coronavirus-driven recession.

    Property analysts no longer expect 10 to 20 per cent declines in house prices, and expect that if the virus remains under control in Australia prices will rise more by early next year.

    After gains in October, CoreLogic’s national index recorded a second consecutive monthly rise in November, with dwelling values up 0.8 per cent over the month and 3.1 per cent over the year.

    CoreLogic’s head of residential research Eliza Owen said this showed a “new recovery trend” following a 2.1 per cent drop in Australian home values between April and September.

    “Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have risen by less than 1 per cent over the month, while all the smaller capital cities have risen by more than 1 per cent.”

     

    S&P said payment deferrals were masking COVID-19’s true impact on mortgage arrears, but arrears related to COVID-19 shutdowns were beginning to surface.

    It also warned Australia’s household debt-to-income levels could rise as borrowers take advantage of cheap debt to buy or upgrade their properties.

    There’s also been a major deterioration in rental markets, especially in the inner cities of Sydney and Melbourne, where those markets rely heavily on international students and people in the food and accommodation sectors who have lost their jobs during the crisis.

    While house values have driven gains in the combined capitals index over the past three months (rising 1.1 per cent), capital city unit values fell by 0.6 per cent over the same period.

    Melbourne’s unit market is the exception. Unit values there recorded a smaller-than-expected decline throughout the COVID period so far, and showed a more substantial recovery trend over recent months.

    “Investors are finding it difficult to get tenants in inner city [areas],” Ms Owen said.

    “Unit rents have fallen almost 8 per cent since the onset of the pandemic. And in Sydney they’ve fallen almost 7 per cent.”

    An improvement in rental conditions depends largely on international borders reopening.

    “We know about 80 per cent of people when they first come to Australia from overseas are renters — a lot of them being international students,” Ms Owen added.

    Given Corelogic is among the property analysts and economists who incorrectly predicted house prices would fall by 10 to 20 per cent, Ms Owen was reluctant to put a figure on future house price rises.

    But she said house prices would rise through early next year off the back of low interest rates, higher levels of consumer sentiment, and government stimulus measures.

    “Were likely to see increases over 2021 — I don’t know exactly what the number is going to be,” Ms Owen said.

    “It will be tempered by things like whether there’s another spike in COVID-19 cases, how quickly we see the distribution of a vaccine, how trade relations play out in China, and how quickly we can get people back to work.”

    The RBA has been modelling 50 per cent theoretical house price falls, and has said that Australia’s economic recovery will be “unpredictable and uneven”.

    AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said the property market had held up “a lot better than” he anticipated six months ago when he estimated falls of up to 20 per cent.

    There appears to be a bit of a ‘fear of missing out’ creeping into some markets – particularly outside of Melbourne and Sydney,” Dr Oliver said.

    He predicted that at the current rate of increase, average capital city dwelling prices would surpass their September 2017 record high by April next year.

    But the collapse in immigration could be a problem, particularly in inner city areas of Melbourne and Sydney.

    “It remains hard to see that the reversal in net immigration from around 240,000 people per annum to an expected net outflow of people this financial year (-70,000) and next (-20,000) won’t have a significant impact,” Dr Oliver said.

    There are, however, a number of data indicators pointing to a good time for sellers.

    The stock on the housing market is about 20 per cent lower than where it was this time last year, and 24 per cent below the five-year average.

    The number of settled sales has held reasonably firm since July, with rising sales activity outside Victoria offsetting the sharp drop in the state’s home sales caused by the recent lockdown period.

    Nationally, CoreLogic’s settled sales estimates over the past three months were about 1 per cent higher than the same period last year, due to strong performance in regional areas.

    Auction markets have strengthened, with November clearance rates holding at about 70 per cent, well above the decade average of 61 per cent.

    “Selling time is going down, the amount vendors have to discount is shrinking as well — so the indicators are that it’s more of a seller’s market,” Ms Owen said.Regional markets are showing stronger growth relative to the capital cities. They were 1.4 per cent higher in November (compared with a 0.7 per cent rise in capital city values).

    NAB home ownership executive Andy Kerr said November demand for home loans was stronger than he had seen for more than two years.

    “Applications over the past six weeks are up more than 25 per cent against the prior six weeks,” he said.

    “We’re currently forecasting property price growth of upwards of 5 per cent in each of the next two years, with apartment prices likely to lag house price growth.”

    The construction sector is also seeing strong activity. Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed building approvals rose for the fourth consecutive month in October.

    The total number of dwellings approved rose 3.8 per cent in October (in seasonally adjusted terms) — the highest recorded level since February 2000.

    S&P’s report said mortgage defaults had remained contained due to rate cuts and government spending.

    The Standard & Poor’s Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages decreased to 1.12 per cent in September from 1.17 per cent a month earlier.

    But mortgage payment deferrals were masking COVID-19’s true impact on mortgage arrears.

    “Loans that have been granted payment holidays due to COVID-19 mostly are not included among the loans in arrears,” the report said.

    “This is because most lenders are not including loans under COVID-19 hardship arrangements in their traditional arrears reporting during mortgage-relief periods.”

    It said problems could surface by early next year.

    “We expect debt-serviceability pressures to begin to surface in [the first quarter of] 2021 as borrowers exit mortgage-deferral arrangements and fiscal stimulus measures taper off,” the report said.

    Although arrears are likely to rise in the months ahead, it would be off a low level, the report said.

    The report said arrears in non-metropolitan areas had been declining at a faster rate than those in metropolitan areas during the pandemic.

    “Around 25 per cent of loans under mortgage deferrals in the sector are in non-metropolitan areas,” it said.

    “This is disproportionately lower than the 30 per cent exposure to non-metropolitan areas.”

     

  • Penny Wong calls for strategic approach on China as Labor leaders back ‘Team Australia’

    Labor’s foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong wants Australia to respond calmly and strategically in the face of deliberate provocation by China.

    Mr Morrison described it as “repugnant” and called for it to be deleted, but China’s foreign affairs ministry has not backed down.

    Senator Wong said the community was “united” in condemnation of the post, but added that a careful response was required.

    “What we need to do, and what we should do, is to respond calmly and strategically, and not be emotional in what is obviously a deliberate — in relation to what was a deliberate — provocation,” she said.

    “It’s very important that we respond in a very calm and measured way and make very clear what we believe is acceptable.”

    She said Australia needed to work with international partners to enforce the “standards of behaviour we want for the region and the world”, and she suggested the USA’s incoming Joe Biden administration would provide an opportunity to improve relations.

    Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese supported the Prime Minister’s comments yesterday.

    As the diplomatic stand-off continues, other senior Labor figures have laid out how they believe Australia needs to respond.

    Labor’s defence spokesman Richard Marles said he wouldn’t have expected such a reaction from China, and said Australia needed to reset the relationship between Canberra and Beijing.

    “It is important that we make our voice heard clearly, in a dignified way, but I think that’s what has happened in the last 24 hours,” he told Radio National.

    He said he had been critical of the Government’s recent handling of the relationship, but said he welcomed recent steps to “reduce the temperature”.

    “It is important that we attempt, when it comes to national security, when it comes to strategic policy, that there is a Team Australia approach,” he said.

    He called on the Government to articulate a set of guiding principles underpinning the relationship with China.

    Former Labor leader Bill Shorten accused China of behaving like a bully and encouraged Australia to hold its ground.

    “Perhaps China feels they can be the big authority, the big power, but I think they’ve underestimated our resolve,” he said on Nine’s Today Show.

    New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said her Government had contacted China about the fake image.”Our concern over the use of that image was that it was an unfactual post and of course that would concern us, that’s something that we’ve raised directly in the way that New Zealand does when we have such concerns,” she said. Liberal senator James Paterson said Australia’s relationship with China would get worse before it got better, but said tensions would pass eventually.

    “This will be a test of our national resilience, it is going to be a difficult period ahead in China-Australia relations and unfortunately a very lucrative trading relationship which has benefited both sides is going to be disrupted,” he said.

    “All we’ve sought to do is stand up for ourselves and protect our own interests.”

    ANU professor of strategic studies Hugh White said the Government’s response yesterday had been “understandable … but I’m not sure it’s an effective one”.

    He said it was important in diplomacy, especially amid heightened tensions, not to respond in anger.

    “I can understand [the Prime Minister’s] anger but I think you always end up risking looking a bit rattled and weak,” he told RN, adding the Prime Minister doesn’t “have his messages sorted out”.